Perthblog

This is the official Perth blog site for posts, comments, and other contributions about leadership, behavioral finance and economics, and about management generally, as well as other related topics that take our fancy.

3 Weddings and a Funeral - The Coming Global Condo Crash


  You’ve probably been reading and hearing about all those condos in Florida that their owners can’t get rid of. It’s going to get much bigger than we think, with numerous scary flavors thrown in. The Crash Heard Around the World? Yep, that would be Surfside, the tragic collapse of a Mimami a condo skyscraper in 2021. Naturally that led to the gove...

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Did Napoleon Invent OpenAI’s Secret Q*-


The killer app for AI is being able to win wars over unprecedentedly multiple fronts, irrespective of an initiators’ level of resources. Check out the recent Napoleon movie to see how it’s done. AI Spy (With My Little Eye) There’s been much chatter as to why Sam Altman was fired and then, (pro tem?) rehired. The scuttlebutt is that OpenAI had secre...

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How About We Figure Out How to Have the Worst Possible Nuclear War?


We need to imagine the very worst that could happen as a result of the Ukraine war if are to have ever have the remotest chance of preventing it. A Nice Little War The opinion of those who follow these things is that at this particular time in history, this is the nearest we have come to nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis. Here’s a stupid q...

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The First Global Nuclear Depression?


It’s going to be a wild ride which probably won’t end well. A Nice Little Recession We’re seeing a number of signs which predict a US and probably a world recession. The bank runs are part of the story. The collapse of crypto currencies is another. Add to that the layoffs, of which I rate Disney’s as the most important and the most symbolic. We can...

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Military Innovation Kills Resources for Climate Change?


New forms of tech are pumping up military innovation and spending which will increasingly crowd out innovation for disease and social purposes and inevitably for climate change. Generatively Speaking Have you heard of generative AI? It’s the latest in tech. Maybe tech has peaked but not in this particular area. Generative AI is the next quantum lea...

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Chess Predicts Ukrainian Win - if Putin Threatens Nukes


Ukraine and Russia are both chess world powers. Who is winning through the prism of the chess board? The Peace Count Both Ukraine and Russia are powerful chess powers. So, as an admittedly poor player myself, I thought it would be worth figuring out who’s in the better position on the chess board. Here’s my take. Pawns – These are the foot soldiers...

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Will Ukraine Go Nuclear?


No security guarantees can be relied on by Ukraine, even if they are from the US Nuclear Aggression is Never Time-Stamped There’s a big problem for Ukraine n fighting Russia. Even if it wins, Russia could always use its nukes on Ukraine, and then Ukraine loses. So, nothing can ever be sure for Ukraine. As long as there’s a Russia, it’s the same old...

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The Secret Weapon for Ukraine in a Nuclear War


Prevailing winds will preferentially blow radioactivity towards Russia if it uses nukes. The Winds of War There’s been a lot of talk about the potential for Russia to use nukes in Ukraine. I’ve been one of the worriers. But there’s a factor that hasn’t been taken into account. The wind. Even with a tactical nuke there will be radioactivity. Any mor...

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Russian Daughtocracy - Is Putin’s Family a Solution?


They’re probably the only people in the world he would allow to take over. Families and How to Survive Them You probably know, somewhat dimly, that Putin has 2 daughters, Mariya and Katerina. Putin doesn’t talk much about them and we don’t know much either because he wants it that way. But they’re definitely his daughters, and he seems to have a fa...

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Can a Nuclear Country Be Defeated?


MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) was supposed to protect us. Until it can’t. The Experiment from Hell Now we have an interesting and terrifying experiment. That is, a nuclear power that is being at least partially defeated by a non-nuclear power. How does this all end? The theory, ever since nuclear weapons were first developed, is that no-one will...

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How Many Coming Nuclear Wars?


myNGXY7z6Jce myNGXY7z6Jce There’s talk about a nuclear world war. If only we could be so lucky. Whose Turn Next? The war in Ukraine could well lead to a nuclear war. Whether or not it’s a world war is another matter. Russia has plenty of nukes and maybe, frighteningly, some that we don’t yet have, namely hypersonic missiles. There’s plenty of ways ...

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Is Planetary Defense a Trojan Horse for Space Wars?


  It’s Peaceful, Really All these stories about asteroids are great for selling newspapers (digital anyway). So it warms the cockles of one’s heart to read that NASA is sending a flying bomb (kind of) to hit a nasty asteroid, hopefully for a six so it will avoid hitting the Earth (not really, coz it’s only a test). We can all rest easy that this is...

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Coming Soon? The World Supply Chain Meta-Nuclear War


Re-Pulsive There’s been much handwringing about the recent disquieting but entirely predictable news that China just completed a test of a hypersonic missile. You might think that being hypersonic is the worrying thing, as in its speed. Here’s the real problem. These missiles can be placed into a fractional orbit. Instead of having to travel the wh...

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Are Quark Nukes as Scary as Godzilla?


We live in a scary world. There’s nothing like a scary movie, right? Hear about the latest Godzilla: King of the Monsters? So here’s the latest kind of Godzilla, courtesy of the Russians, namely hypersonic missiles . They go at Mach 5 speed, seriously fast, and you can’t knock them down. That’s scary. Oh, and did we mention that they seem to be nuc...

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